Three Body Approach
Change is complex. Our approach to research recognises the reflexivity of different transformative forces, helping clients profit from the unintended consequences of change.
As long-time investors in Emerging Markets, we understand the mechanics of transformation. Whereas most people focus on the first order impact, we believe the opportunity set is much bigger, more structural and longer-dated when we consider second order impact and beyond.
Our name references the “Three-body problem” in classical physics, a problem for which there is no set formulaic solution. Likewise, in an environment of accelerating change, mean reversion and hindsight are irrelevant. Instead, we must open our minds to what seems impossible to the majority.
While improvements in healthcare, education and social services have led to people living longer, the inadvertent pressure on social infrastructure and pension liabilities represents both an opportunity and a danger to investments.
The rise of passive and machine driven investing strategies has made low-cost investing possible for the masses. In a market where correlations are rising due to ETF holdings, investor time horizons are shortening, impacting price discovery in public markets across all asset classes. Time, more so than capital, is increasingly precious.
Regulatory changes across the world come as a governmental response to rapidly evolving social and commercial conditions. While they are prima facie restrictive, the also open up new business opportunities.
Despite the benefits of globalisation, politicians are increasingly inward-looking in their approaches. As politicians seek to exploit contentious issues for political advancement, risk and uncertainty become ever more pervasive in markets.
From high speed wireless internet to handheld supercomputers, Artificial intelligence to robotics, CRISPR gene editing to autonomous vehicles, technological transformation captures the imagination. But technology is more than just a convenience - it’s enabling the impossible across multiple fields, especially so in Emerging Markets.
The rise of lifestyle diseases like diabetes and hypertension are contributing to the emergence of environmental, social and governance criteria as key determinants of business and investment performance.