Weekend Reading #382
This is the three-hundredth-and-eighty-second weekly edition of our newsletter, Weekend Reading, sent out on Saturday 19th September 2026.
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What we're thinking.
The most pressing word we have had in or minds all week is HYSTERIA. We cannot quite believe how much of a fuss everyone is making about pretty much everything in the markets. So, we took a step back and have a few things to add which may be helpful. In our view, AI is the most transformative technology we have ever seen and will bring about positive changes the likes of which we cannot even imagine. There will be new jobs created we don't even know exist. There will be lots of people who lose their existing jobs and a major re-skilling is necessary for many. There is also a non-trivial chance it kills us. The companies and stocks that are tied to AI and numerous and serve many different parts of the larger puzzle. Some have incredible prospects; some have been overblown. We may be in a major bubble which burns down the entire economy, but it may also go on for years and create substantial growth around it. So, when people ask us should be buy this stock or that stock, just use some common sense. Nothing is a guarantee.
The same applied to the much-anticipated Fed meeting this week which came and went with an expected 25 bps interest rate hike. There has been much ink spilled on the ramifications of this. We look at it quite simply. It was priced in ahead of time and now the market is free to trade as it sees fits. The hysteria around independence is just that.
And our favourite recent topic - the war in Iran. The question is whether the ultimate goal of the war warrants some interim discomfort in terms of higher petrol prices and possible shortage in some places. The other war is taking place in the media, and every interested party has different incentives in terms of trying to influence the perceived picture. Because we live in an always-on world with real-time information flying at us all the time, there is a plethora of opinions from those whose opinions are valuable and those that are really not. And the real battle is to stay out of the nitpicking cycle. Headlines are screaming and it sells clicks/papers/substacks. The only way we will know the outcome of this war is through the passage of time. Momentum swings, progress is made and lost but in the end we will know. The market, which in our careers is the best predictor of the future, is saying it is not a big deal in the overall picture. Heck, we have no idea what is going to happen in the US midterms and we can assure you neither do the pollsters.
We try keep a cool head and use price action and the market to guide us as to where to place our bets. We know that not many people can do this but suffice to say, just don't get sucked into the melee.
Elsewhere, the crypto Clarity Bill did not make it past the cloture vote again this week but the SEC and CFTC in the US have gone ahead with favourable changes anyway. Crypto had a brief selloff and has bounced straight back. Could we be in a new, better bull market? On the main markets, we are getting ready for another rotation back to tech and AI in particular. Now that the first hike is out the system and AI names have spent months derating, we could be poised for a sizeable move. We quite simply cannot get bulled up on commodities given a large move has already happened although there are exceptions. The least popular outcome would be LOWER yields and new highs in anything associated with AI. This would be fun. Many are bearish and think we are heading into a depression on the bursting of an AI capex bubble. Our base case has been that it is an issue of national security and the very top priority of the Trump regime to stay ahead in AI. While price action has been poor for a few months, this week saw some potential inflection points. We are ready and have planned accordingly!
What we're reading.
One guy that gets a lot of flak is Mark Zuckerberg. He can't seem to win the hearts and minds of the public and in recent times of the market. Meta has been a poor performer in terms of its stock price in recent times. Is that about to change? This past week saw the release of Meta's AI agent assistant, Muse. And it has roared to the top of the download charts on the app store. A reminder to all the bears that Meta has 3.6 BILLION users - or toughly 1 in every 2 people on earth. And its agent has received excellent reviews. I think it is possible that we are seeing the proliferation of the world's first AI consumer product in real time. And it comes at a time for negative sentiment towards the stock, its founder and AI in general. Could the ultimate irony be that Zuck is the one to bring AI to the masses in a positive way while the frontier labs try and tell us that AI will kill us all? This outstanding profile takes a holistic view of the man and what may drive him. Excellent piece of writing. DC
The next time someone tosses an insult about insects being stupid (e.g. crush that ant, flea-sized brain etc), pull out this article about how Google and partners mapped the brain of an adult male fruit fly. Just a mapping? Well, the mapping’s open sourced now – available here, and the internet has done the internet on it. First, they made it play Doom and trade crypto, then they put it onto a simple robot (here) which in itself should start to concoct shudders (what if it’s NOT a fly brain the next time?), and the best part is now they’ve released it into the wild as a DJ, the humans seem to like the music. Truth be told, I’m not sure I believe what I’m seeing but it’s now so close to the border of possibility that it could well be true. The 166,700 neurons in the Fly’s brain can apparently also write math homework in human handwriting. The real question then is if a Fly brain with 166,700 neurons can do all of the above then why aren’t humans doing more with 86bn neurons (not to mention complaining that homework is difficult!)?
In other news, a new species of cat has been discovered in Bolivia, the first in over a century, apparently hiding under our noses all this time. Locals thought it was just a normal cat, until one was adopted and found to be a “strange cat”. Subsequent DNA testing found that it is not only a completely different species, it split off from its relatives about 1.4m years ago, and is part of the Leopardus family (rather than Felis which the domestic cat comes under). Just goes to show there is always something new to find out everyday! EL
What we're watching.
I genuinely believe we are at the cusp of a golden age of film making and music. The quality of AI generated content is getting exceptional. And what I love is how anyone with talent now has access to tools that can create exceptional productions for a very low cost. The gatekeepers are done and it is for the benefit of the consumer. The investment implications are profound but for another time. In the meantime just check out these short films I stumbled across this week. First one, which is a bit bizarre I must say but you get the point, is by a guy called Ryan Lightbourn about his character Black Thunder. Eugene stumbled across another one below. Incredible and uplifting. The real problem is going to be that there is so much stuff we are going to have to work out how to prioritise and how to find it. Incidentally most of the good quality stuff I am seeing is using Seedance 2.5, which is owned by Bytedance. DC
I came across this video entitled Tales of Grimwicke. It’s terrifyingly well made – kind of like a cross of Wind in the Willows and Lord of the Rings, with some proper lines in the script: “The valley. Before the worst. Before the name. When the town was only the wicke, and the wicke was nothing worth writing down. Which is the only sort of place anyone should want to live in.”
To state the obvious, it’s AI generated by Seedance 2.5. That said, it also took $4.5k of generation tokens and four weeks from first take to finish, the result of 847 takes generated of which 127 clips made the cut. The point is not so much that AI can do this – it’s that an engine paired with human skill can make something pretty impressive in a month with $4.5k. This isn’t trashy short-form clickbait/ragebait drama – you’ll have to see it to get the idea. But it truly does presage some pretty profound change in the media industry. EL
What we're listening to.
One of the things that came up in the Zuck profile was his obsession with Roman dictator, Augustus (Octavian), grand nephew of Julius Caeser and the man that transformed Rome from a republic to an empire. So coincidentally that same day I read the profile I noticed a podcast about him and listened. It is really good. It mixes storytelling and the historian chiming in and for once I didn't even notice the 5kms I ran until the end! Really engrossing. The pod is called Real Dictators and it features many others in different episodes. Super cool. DC