Weekend Reading #246
This is the two-hundred-and-forty-sixth weekly edition of our newsletter, Weekend Reading, sent out on Saturday 2nd December 2023
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What we’re thinking.
As November closed and markets remain buoyant, many already are looking to 2024 and what it may bring. Don’t ask us for our 2024 predictions, we have no idea. I’m sure you will find lots of “What to expect in 2024” pieces in your inboxes. We just follow what the prices are telling us. Right now, they are telling us that Santa could possibly be coming. Even commodity stocks were up this week. Beyond Santa, who knows?
What we’re doing.
This week I landed in Cape Town, South Africa. Until this point, I had been the only one of Three Body Capital to have never visited and, in all honesty, I don’t know why I hadn’t sooner! It’s been incredible – great food, great scenery and a way of life where everyone is in shape, healthy and spending plenty of time outdoors. The first stop on my agenda was the famous Boulders Beach and Cape Point, where I was able to see the “African Penguins”. Tonight, I will be heading to Beyond restaurant in Constantia for a tasting menu of local specialties accompanied by some of the adjoining vineyard’s wine. I’ve just been here one night so far (two nights by the time this goes out), but this is already shaping up to be a fantastic trip and I’m sure I’ll be back again soon. Fortunately, I have two weeks here and so our readers will have a couple more updates from me on top picks as I go along. HS
It’s not the most exciting thing in the world, but in what is very much a case of the more frustrating the task is, the more satisfying it is to get it over and done with, I spent a slightly-more-than-unreasonable amount of time this week on (drumroll...) MiFIR trade reporting. No one deserves to be tortured with the details of fixing CSV files with trade details, but perhaps what is more fascinating is how the very notion of “trade reporting” is avoided like a profanity, almost like “Voldemort”. Ask anyone in an operations role about it and the typical reaction is one of absolute disgust, frustration and outright rejection. The emotional response in most cases can even be said to be visceral – if regulation sought to touch hearts and souls, this is one fine example. The problem is that no matter how hard one tries to avoid it, it needs to be done. No surprise that there are companies that hold themselves out as experts on the matter and charge a small fortune for their services – except that when audited, most of the reports produced had errors in them. Ultimately, we’re responsible for our own reports, so after terminating our contract with our rather erroneous former reporting service provider, DIY is now the best approach, and so far, so good. There's nothing more satisfying than seeing files go in with zero exceptions, especially at the first try. Next project – properly working this out and automating it for a net saving of 20-30 mins of work a day. EL
What we’re watching
If you do one thing this week, you simply have to watch Elon Musk’s conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin at this week’s Dealbook Summit. This is one of the best interviews I’ve seen in years. Maybe it's because I’m in the middle of Walter Isaacson’s biography of Elon that this entranced me but wow. The reason it was so good was not because of Sorkin, who in fairness to him did ask good questions. It was so good because Musk was seemingly very authentic. Nothing was off limits. His world view and motivations are becoming increasingly clear to me. Here is a guy who despite his many faults, like all of us, simply wants a better world. He may differ from many others when it comes to the path he takes to achieve his objectives and that is also something to be discussed because on many occasions, it’s not cool. But there is no doubt in my mind that they are genuine objectives. Musk is not a grifter. This is compulsory viewing for anyone who cares about the world because as time passes, Elon is becoming even more important, despite what the real grifters may say. DC
What we’re reading
After announcing they were joining up to unite on a “pro-China” ticket, the two largest opposition parties in Taiwan changed their minds. So now the incumbent pro-independence party is back on top for the moment. That hasn’t stopped the Chinese from their intense efforts to influence the election’s outcome as evidenced by this article from Reuters. The article tells of how China is bringing hundreds of Taiwanese politicians to China all expenses paid in a bid to influence them. I’m not surprised and in fact would be surprised if this was the worst of it. It’s in China’s interest to do everything it can to take Taiwan politically. Military action would be messy and a last resort, the way I see it. The election is next month and I’m sure lots more will unfold in the coming weeks.
This is an interesting FT interactive piece about how China is erasing Islam from its shores. Beyond Xinjiang and the treatment of the Uygurs (an actual ethnic cleansing operation for those newly minted fans of using this phrase glibly), this article shows a systematic plan to de-Islamise China. There are an estimated 20m Muslims in China and soon they will have nowhere to pray as Mosques are being converted to normal buildings all over the country. My eyes must be deceiving me because I can’t see anyone protesting in all the world’s major cities in support of the Uygurs or the 20m Muslims in China. Away from this sardonic remark, in all seriousness this is Chinese policy. One China means one China and the promotion of the Han Chinese race to others exclusion continues unabated.
This was a cool newsletter post from a substack which professes to be all about mimetic value. The post delves into AI doomerism as an apocalyptic cult from a mimetic theory perspective. “When people are panicked, they seek a scapegoat to sacrifice, and eventually the scapegoat becomes a god. This is precisely what these doomers did to AI.”. The post uses Marc Andreessen’s fantastic piece from a few months ago as a base. If you haven't read that yet, it's also highly recommended.
A new survey has come to light in terms of Tik Tok and the proliferation of antisemitism this week as this tweet thread from Anthony Goldbloom shows. The main observation is that Tik Tok usage resulted in a 17% higher likelihood of holding an anti-semitic view. The survey was of 1,323 Americans aged under 30 years old. There is more detail in the thread which is worth reading but the conclusion is that Tik Tok did not merely espouse pre-existing views, it rather influenced behaviour. This is worrying.
One more on social media and its effects. Much has been written recently about the effects of social media on the mental health of teens. Jonathan Haidt has emerged as a leading researcher into this and so far, much of his research has been focused on girls, given the data that has presented itself. But now he’s back with some more research focused on boys and the bad news is that it makes for grim reading. His initial thinking was that boys are not as badly affected given that unlike girls, there was no major spike in unhappiness in 2013, round about when Instagram was bought by Facebook. But he has now concluded that boys’ unhappiness predated this and that instead of catalysing the crisis, as with girls it has rather made it worse. Worth digging into this as a parent. What to do about it? Keep the kids moving, get them outdoors and doing real life activities rather than staring at a screen. Nothing wrong with gaming, tv etc at all – in fact it can be really beneficial in many ways but it's all about quantities and balance just like lots in life.
Finally (and if you register for free) this article in The Athletic about the newest incarnation of Tiger Woods is a great read. Perennially injured in recent years, Tiger has evolved to be a policymaker and players representative on tour these days (though he has a comeback planned for 2024). This article takes us through his plans and hopes for the game as well as for his son, Charlie, who is also a young superstar in the making. Something I’ve thought a lot about in recent months is the impermanence of success. Watching retired footballers, who had the world at their feet, commentate or do TV punditry is sad. With Henry Kissinger and Charlie Munger’s passing this week, I thought again of the relatively small time we all have to make an impact. They will no doubt be remembered but the truth is they are dead, and the world moves on. Elon seems to understand this too as evidenced by his comments in his interview above. Worthy of a longer conversation should anyone be interested in musing more philosophical things! DC