Weekend Reading #264

This is the two-hundred-and-sixty-fourth weekly edition of our newsletter, Weekend Reading, sent out on Saturday 20th April 2024

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What we're thinking.

Since last week’s newsletter a lot has happened geopolitically with extraordinary attack on Israel by Iran’s IRGC and Israel’s ultimate response early Friday. By all accounts, Iran’s attack was an abject failure militarily. There are some who argue it was done to test the Israeli air defences, but we don’t buy that. Ironically, we think there may be a light at the end of the tunnel now. The Iranians definitely did not expect the Saudis and Jordanians, never mind the western powers to participate in the defence of Israel to the extent they did. This sets up all sorts of permutations for the long-awaited official détente between the Israelis and the Saudis. This would be a very big deal. If the Americans give Saudi a military protection guarantee as with Israel, which the Saudis are asking for, suddenly Iran is even more isolated. Peace in the region (or at least a very long standoff) is even looking possible. Markets have moved around quite a bit on all this, but it could also largely be a result of rising yields, inflation, dollar or (insert macro thought here). We went up a lot, especially in tech and it's as simple as that. We are entering “sell in May” territory and the CTA’s books are stacked to sell so we wouldn’t be surprised to see more pain but as ever we just follow price. Gold and commodities are very strong despite the dollar. It’s certainly not a time to be too expansive for the moment as a trader. On the other side, crypto has been absolutely smashed with many tokens down 50% or so. This is looking increasingly appealing as a spot to take some more medium- or long-term positions. 

What we're doing. 
For the first time in my life, I watched a live football match in a stadium this week, having been invited to watch the home game between Oxford United and Lincoln FC. It wasn’t my first time in a stadium though, the two other times being the Emirates (to see Muse live) and Wembley (for Dream Theater), although this was a much smaller stadium than either Emirates or Wembley. Small size took nothing away from the spirited cheers and singing from the home crowd though. Unfortunately, the home team lost 0-1 thanks to a penalty given away in the early part of the 2nd half, but it was certainly quite an interesting experience. With a new stadium being built for Oxford Utd, accompanied by plans for a comprehensive commercial + residential development around it, the powers that be clearly have big plans for both the club and the entire surrounding area. EL 

It’s been a quiet week on my side of the business this week as we kept our heads down and powered through outstanding objectives. However, this Friday as I ended the week in the City, I met up with some friends and ventured into vibrant Shoreditch. It was there that I popped into Mikkeller, an offshoot of a popular Danish brewery serving a variety of craft beers. The lack of a kitchen was no trouble for the bar through their rather fitting partnership with a local pizzeria who would deliver straight to your table from somewhere in the surrounding neighbourhood.  The beers were good, the food was tasty and the atmosphere was buzzing, all in, it was a rather enjoyable evening although perhaps some of the more peculiar tasting beers won’t be missed. HS

What we're watching.

I started watching Shogun, which is a historical fiction thriller based on James Clavell’s 1975 novel. It is set in Feudal Japan around the year 1600 and it is so far fantastic. There is everything in here – beautiful scenery, a deep plot with cool characters and lots of history to learn. There are the warring Japanese as well as the Protestants and Catholics. The English, the Dutch, the Spanish and Portuguese all feature early. It is full of violence but not gratuitously. Its rather more just representative of the time. Already it reminds me of the early seasons of Game of Thrones in a way. This is good. 2nd good one on the trot after The Gentlemen, in an era of apparently really crappy TV. DC

We managed to catch the new Michael Jackson musical, simply titled “MJ”, this week. Perhaps it’s unfair to expect anyone to match the performances of the King of Pop, but then again, we’re talking about a London West End production. The repertoire covered a good selection of his greatest hits, rather skilfully weaved into a plot telling his life story from his childhood all the way to the Dangerous world tour. And while one could pick on the singing and dancing being “not as good as the real thing” (and no, there wasn’t a real re-do of the Smooth Criminal leaning move, not least because for most normal humans it’d be impossible even with the patented special shoes), perhaps the most overt aim of the musical is to attempt a posthumous rehabilitation of Michael Jackson’s legacy, addressing some part (superficially) of the controversy that surrounded him at the peak of his career. In the absence of the real deal, it’s probably the best place to catch some pretty genuine moonwalking – even if only for a couple of seconds.  

We also managed to catch one of the last screenings of the 2nd part of Dune, which as a cinematic work is excellent. Sandworms, harvesters, Harkonnens, the Emperor, the Fremen – all done in full cinematic glory. By any measure this was much better than the first part, although the hope that they would touch on the missing gaping hole in the plot – the Spacing Guild and the importance of Spice – remained unfulfilled. Without the context that readers of the books benefit from, the entire story looks like a bunch of people fighting over a hallucinogenic desert spice that gives the ability to see the future, which sadly misses the entire point of Dune. All in, great movie, but as a representation of the original books it’s pretty much off target sadly. EL

Babylon Berlin on Netflix is a fascinating set of stories that show a society in disintegration. Based in the Berlin of the late Weimar republic, it follows Gereon Rath, a police inspector sent to Berlin from Cologne on a special mission, and Charlotte Ritter, who balances police clerk work by day with the darker sides of late 20’s Berlin in the evening. It’s fun to watch, strangely sexy, but it also shows a society falling apart, in no small part due to the machinations of a terrible alliance of old elites with new forces they don’t understand. The poverty and desperation of the period, and the way it led to the disintegration of society, as much as the rampant violence, create a clear image of a society falling apart, and the creation of the basis for the totalitarian regime that came with the ascent of Hitler. LM 

What we're reading.

Along the same lines, February 1933: The winter of literature, shows the same terrible disintegration, if on an accelerated time frame. The book follows, day by day in February 1933, the fate of many of the important writers and thinker in Germany following the coming to power of Hitler. What is terrible and fascinating is the speed at which normal civil society disintegrates in a way that leaves everyone, whether wondering if they should leave, or those that have left the country, thinking they were only going for a short trip, like Thomas Mann in one key episode, in real danger and incapable of understanding what’s happening. LM 

I’ve been meaning to read Isaac Asimov’s Foundation for ages but have had a bit of a science fiction overload in recent years. When AppleTV released a series, I was tempted to dive straight in but luckily, I held off in the hopes of reading the book. Eventually last week I kicked off with the first book and I was not disappointed. Of the grandfather sci-fi series, I’d always had Dune and Foundation on my list. Having read Dune and been relatively disappointed after the first one (sorry), Foundation was just superb. I hope it doesn’t deteriorate like Dune did after the first book. But I’m straight onto the next one.  

This is an amazing article about a guy no one has ever heard of, who managed to beat the Roulette wheel at some of London's finest establishments. It goes deep into the mechanics of the wheel, various historical ways of trying to better it and much more. But it's mainly the story of the Croatian man who figured it all out. Superb read. DC


What we're listening to.

Peter Thiel chatting to Tyler Cowan is well worth a listen any time. But this one focused on religious and political thought. This was a whole new way of looking at things for me. DC