Weekend Reading #285
This is the two-hundred-and-eigthy-fifth weekly edition of our newsletter, Weekend Reading, sent out on Saturday 28th September 2024
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What we're thinking.
After last week’s Fed action, the Japanese followed and then the big bazooka came from the Chinese. This action from the Chinese authorities is unprecedented. It almost seems to have been done on purpose once the Fed got started and gave them cover. And despite the rally in markets broadly with US indices reaching all time highs, the real action is definitely in Chinese stocks and associated sectors like industrial miners. We wrote in a blogpost earlier this year about something meaningful possibly happening in China for the first time. And despite ourselves and our inherent disbelief that China can actually become long-term investable, there were more signs in the series of releases this week. We have written for years about how to play China. Just listen to what the authorities are telling you. And this week they told us they will do whatever it takes. Buybacks? In China? Well, here they are. Loans to buy stocks? And a liquidity flood. The world is now awash with liquidity once again. Don’t over-intellectualize it.
What we're reading.
This is an absolutely fantastic article by a guy called Rory Sutherland entitled “Are We Too Impatient to Be Intelligent?”. Sutherland is the vice chairman of Ogilvy, which helps explain why the core theme of the essay is why a linear path may not always be the best one. He writes about optimization and how that is the theme du jour in our left brained world. He gives tremendous examples. And it made me think about another short piece written by Tom Morgan in which he endeavours to work out what happens after capitalism (Tom recommended the Sutherland essay too). Capitalism has brought phenomenal prosperity, but it is most certainly linear in its profit or wealth seeking goals. This essay shows how often life is about more than that. And even the outcome we want may be better when done differently to what the optimized path may suggest. Really worth a read this one as well as Tom’s article here.
This chart has been doing the rounds this week on Twitter and for good reason. It’s absolutely sensational. The chart is of the annual number of objects launched into space and it’s a one-horse race. And it’s a one-horse race due to SpaceX and Elon. Americans and the West would do well to remember that the conditions that gave rise to this and many other wonderful ideas and businesses are priceless, and they really shouldn’t F it up (per Mr Milei). Meanwhile publicly listed space stocks, led by our favourite (we don’t own or trade it but it’s a great story) name, Rocket Labs, are on fire. Lower rates? Maybe the terminal value rises etc? Either way they have gone up quite a bit.
And finally from me another gem from Epsilon Theory, this time featuring guest writer, Kyla Scanlon. The piece is about Mr Beast’s memo to his staff which found its way into the public arena this week. This is pure gold. Mr Beast’s memo is unashamedly about optimizing for eyeballs and clicks. In other words, optimizing for the algorithm. His section entitled “What is your goal here?” is answered as “Your goal here is to make the best YOUTUBE videos possible.” This is done by learning about CTR (Click Thru Rate, AVD (Average View Duration) and AVP (Average View Percentage). Yes, its another world. Every bit of advice he gives to his staff revolves around this. It’s a great insight into what a Gen Z work force may be like. It also ties in rather perfectly this week with the article above by Rory Sutherland. Its good for profit but is it good for us? Here is the link to the memo itself, which should probably be read first. DC
It's not every day (or even every year) when a new Mozart track gets dropped, but just a week or so ago, a previously unknown 12-minute long piece called Serenade in C, written by a teenage Mozart, was found in the Leipzig Municipal Libraries’ archives. The piece was discovered when library researchers were compiling an edition of Mozart’s work, and has now been named “Ganz Kleine Nachtmusik”, along the lines of his other famous serenade, “Eine Kleine Nachtmusik”. It’s always fascinating to think about how the entire catalogue of classical music available to us today could well be only a fraction of all the work produced through the centuries – and likewise, of the music we know of today, how little will likely survive the test of time. That said, survival could really be a function of luck – as it has in the case of this particular piece – or even a function of posthumous patronage, as in the case of the now-famous works of Vivaldi, brought back from obscurity by the work of Alberto Gentili and Luigi Torri. The latter is an equally fascinating story, a retelling of which can be found here. EL
What we're watching.
In line with the above in what we are thinking, I was absolutely delighted to switch on CNBC Squawkbox, something I do rarely these days, and see none other than David Tepper live on the screen opining about the gravity of what has just unfolded with Chinese policy intervention. I only really have 2 investors I pay close attention to as I can identify with their style. Stan Druckenmiller and David Tepper. Neither are too left brained and neither tends to overintellectualize. They are both examples to me of a wonderful way of doing common sense investing and not getting caught up in the minutiae. So, when I see Tepper’s views dovetailing very much with mine I get excited. Part of the skill for me anyway is working out whose market advice to take at what time. This really varies. Sometimes one guy will say something, and I lock in and at other times in a different environment I’ll do the opposite. Everyone has their way, including me. But this is a must watch for anyone. The link is to the CNBC website for the full interview and requires a registration but its worth the 7-day free trial to get the full interview rather than the soundbites. I’m locked in.
Argentinian president, Javier Milei, did it again. Someone who isn’t afraid of speaking truths. Last time was at Davos but this time he gave it a full go in front of the mediocrity of the UN. He spoke once again about the problems of socialism and how he sees the world, led by the exact body he is addressing, going in the wrong direction. Good for him.
I don’t even know how I found this guy called Goblin on Twitter. His real name is Daniel Greene and he is a fantasy book/show content guy. He comes up with some really good stuff and has a really direct way of chatting with some cheap edits and no BS. Turns out he does it on purpose. Anyway this week he put out a short video on the concept of “The Next Game of Thrones”. Every fantasy show from Wheel of Time to Lord of the Rings has been a search for this but as he points out there are reasons why it isn’t happening and not all of them are due to the actual shows but more the audience. We have all seen time after time how a hit gets made and then everyone copies it. Ever wondered why there were so many Westerns in the 1950s? Me neither. But now I know. I really enjoyed his insights. DC