Weekend Reading #291
This is the two-hundred-and-ninety-first weekly edition of our newsletter, Weekend Reading, sent out on Saturday 9th November 2024
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What we're thinking.
In one swoop, the magnitude of the red sweep in the US installing Trump and his new movement eradicated all the uncertainty of possible results delays and disputes with the markets responding in kind. Meanwhile quietly while all the action was on the elections, Nvidia usurped Apple properly this time as the largest company on the planet and stayed there for more than a few minutes. Bitcoin surged to a new high as the promise of positive regulation for crypto in the US was finally realised. Now we wait to see what the nuts and bolts of it look like. Oh, and the Fed cut rates again into the melt up again while everyone was otherwise occupied. What a week.
What we're doing.
Once again, I found myself in Madrid last weekend, soaking up some winter sun whilst London remained grey and gloomy. As usual I was out and about trying all kinds of local food, as well as making time for a bit of sport wherever I could. Given the proliferation of Padel within Spain, it was only right that I played for a while...although by the end of the weekend, my hours played had tallied up to more than 4! With that in mind, it’s perhaps rather sad that there are just a few courts in London, making it extremely difficult to get a booking and to do so without paying an absolute fortune. Aside from the food and padel, I also got another chance to visit the Civitas Metropolitano Stadium to see Atletico Madrid as they faced off against Las Palmas. An easy victory, and not as exciting as their last match I visited versus Real Madrid, but nevertheless still an enjoyable afternoon. HS
I’ll be in Singapore and Indonesia for the next few weeks, both for meetings (around iConnections and the FIX conference, both in Singapore this coming week) and to attend a friend’s wedding in Singapore, and for the first time in a long time we came in on a direct flight from London, thanks to BA companion vouchers bringing the total cost of 2 return tickets down to £500 - yes, they do work, just a matter of booking well in advance! Unfortunately, it wasn’t the luxury we thought we’d enjoy – with insufficient time to fight the jetlag, any economy we had in travel time saved was replaced with insomnia and sleep time lost. Turns out splitting the flight into two 8hr segments makes a lot more sense, especially with the chance to have a stretch break at the halfway point. As it happens, this is scientifically proven too, as this paper suggests that jetlag is more manageable if split across 2 days (e.g. 4hrs of jet lag over 2 days), which is essentially solved with a 3-4hr layover at a 3-4hr time difference vs London. Empirically proven.
On that jetlagged note, we’ll be here in the region for a couple of weeks, so definitely look forward to catching up all around where possible. EL
What we're listening to.
I regularly refer to Pippa Malmgren’s opinions for good reason and here I do so again as a link to her chat with Eric Townsend on the Macro Voices podcast. She has a really interesting take on RFK Jr and his influence on the Trump campaign and indeed the election result. Trump is 78. He is the grandad in the room who has brought with him an entirely new group of people to government. And these are the best and brightest. One of my long-term concerns about the West has been that smart people in the West build companies and succeed in business, leaving the less competent and ambitious to compete for political jockeying. This results in political mediocrity – something we see across the western world with now abundantly clear consequences. With Trump’s victory you have a new elite of winners in government or alongside. Elon saw it first and jumped at the opportunity. If you want to shape the world, what better way to do it than to actually be in power! Zuck and Bezos have been more subtle but there is no doubt they sensed which way the wind was blowing in recent months judging by their actions. Thiel, Sacks and indeed JD Vance, who is presumably the next president if they don’t blow it over the next 4 years. For all the mainstream malignment of Robert F Kennedy Jr, his support amongst younger Americans is substantial and could even have been the deciding factor. Could it be that we are seeing smart, innovative, ambitious people in government shaping policy in the US for the first time in decades? The optimism is palpable. It’s really interesting and I highly recommend a listen to something you won’t find anywhere else.
And then another brilliant one with Druckenmiller this week. Brilliant as it focused almost entirely on the markets as opposed to politics and philanthropy which sometimes these days he does. Don’t miss this one. DC
What we're reading.
In an incredible story late Friday pm, joining Trump’s call with Zelensky was none other than Elon Musk. Are we witnessing Elon’s ascent to the presidency in all but name? Not being born in the USA means he can never be president but if you think like someone who really thinks the biggest, then ultimate power shouldn’t be beyond your reach. Imagine what he could do with the resources of the state. I hope he remembers though with great power comes great responsibility.
Things are already happening only a day after the election result too. Qatar have apparently told Hamas to leave Qatar. As Konstantin Kisin said, “Elections have consequences”. Meanwhile a pogrom against Jews in modern Europe and in the latest line of truth-washing, the New York Times headline tried to minimize it. Ritchie Torres wouldnt allow it. Good for him.
And finally, this week something for optimists! It’s called the Rational Optimist Society and its brilliant. Check it out, I admire what they are trying to achieve. Why not be optimistic. Imagine the New York Times wrote stories and thoughts like these instead what it could do for the world. And the writing is damn good too. DC