Weekend Reading #337

This is the three-hundredth-and-thirty-seventh weekly edition of our newsletter, Weekend Reading, sent out on Saturday 18th October 2025.

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What we're thinking.

We suspected volatility was making a comeback and this week it most certainly did! Tech is down, crypto has collapsed again and all round we are having either a breather, a selloff or the end. 

There are extremes everywhere, vertical lines all over. Gold itself, the leader of the landslide, now is in nosebleed territory. Everyone and their dog are long and it’s time to be careful.

We don’t think it’s the end but as ever we really don’t know and will have to respect the price action as it evolves.

What we're doing.

Labuan Bajo is a small town on Indonesia’s Flores Island and probably not a place many have heard of. Its claim to fame at present is its proximity (an hour or so speedboat ride) to Komodo and Rinca Islands (and a handful of smaller ones), the only places on earth where one can find Komodo Dragons in the wild.

The town itself is very underdeveloped. Most people farm on their small plots and sell their produce of rice or fruit. Houses are very basic and life is simple. We went to fish markets and fruit and vegetable open markets where we were the only Caucasians and were treated with a sense of curiosity. There is a blooming tourism industry built around the natural wonders of the place which is uplifting the local communities rapidly. Apart from the Komodo dragons, there are magnificent coral reefs for snorkelling and diving. We swam with manta rays, turtles and a variety of rainbow coloured fish that we couldn’t even dream existed. The manta rays are remarkable. Massive things. Yet silent, smooth and graceful through the water like birds flapping their wings in the sky.

The world under the ocean surface is busier than above around here! We went to underwater caves, virgin beach islands and trekked to waterfalls (in the midst of a tropical storm). And we kayaked, paddle boarded and swam daily. We saw flying fish jumping out of the water in groups just in front of our bungalow. And of course, we were in the very warm sea each evening watching nature’s show unfold at sunset right in front of us.

And not forgetting the dragons. They are big! Up to 3.5m long and incredibly fast. An adult can eat a buffalo. Its jaws are expandable like a snake, and it swallows the entire animal whole. They are also cannibals!

The longer we are away from the hum of London, the more realise how much BS most of what goes on is. Life is for living. It’s not about fancy restaurants and 5 star all inclusive holidays (though those are nice). It’s not about stupid politicians and social media virtue signalling. It’s about connecting with people and having genuine conversations and new experiences. And on this part of the trip, we have simply been in a constant state of wonder.

In 2003, I travelled to Koh Lanta in Thailand long before it became developed. I stayed with friends at a resort aptly named Last Beach Resort as it was so remote. We saw luminous plankton in the sea each night. It was the best place I’d ever been. Not anymore. Here, this time with family together we hit the jackpot.

Truly a once in a lifetime experience and for the first time ever on a trip somewhere we were actually sad to leave. Like really.

Next up was a short stint in manic Jakarta for a few meetings. One thing for sure is that politics is back. After a very smooth decade under Jokowi, Prabowo’s reign has begun with pockets of unrest. The unrest isn’t organic though. It is a turf war between the police who had risen to prominence under Jokowi and the military who are keen to flex their muscles under Prabowo, given his military history. This led a month or so ago to some pockets of unrest and protest, but it seems as quickly as they appeared they stopped as behind the scenes somebody was placated one way or the other.
 
I hadn’t been to Jakarta for a couple of years and to be honest it looks better than ever. Despite the mandatory traffic to get anywhere at any time of day, clear effort has been made to greenify most central areas and dare I say parts of the newer developments look very Singaporean in their appearance. 
 
The local markets have been weak on the whole and everyone is frustrated. If they haven’t been playing the meme game, that is. Local conglomerates with deep pockets have become meme stocks here as their market caps zing around like a crypto currency. Gotta be in it to win it!
 
Yet one thing stands above all. Indonesia has always been excellent at balancing the competing interests of the Americans and the Chinese, staying just onside of both superpowers. Yet this time for the first time it seems the Chinese are pulling ahead. The obvious areas are economic. Most people say that while the Americans posture and promise the Chinese deliver and they do so fast. There is no part of the economy now where the Chinese aren't involved. But the most incredible observation is not to do with economics. It is to do with soft power and cultural influence.
 
America became great due to the proliferation of its culture internationally. And the crowning achievement of both the U.S. and indeed the UK has been its educational institutions. Recently as we all know that has changed with the penetration of these esteemed universities by extreme progressive elements. So much so that when I asked some local elites where they are sending their kids to university, the answer made me nearly fall off my chair. China. The kids are learning mandarin and preparing for university in China. Why? Because they are It going to be sidetracked and indoctrinated with rubbish. Oh, the irony! The implications of this are profound and I don’t have to spell it out.
 
And on top of that most are bullish on Chinese markets too. Not cyclically but structurally. My goodness things are changing.
 
Fittingly I type this from Beijing where we arrived yesterday. I look forward to reporting back from the Middle Kingdom next week. DC

What we're reading.
 
Book three of the Red Rising trilogy, Morning Star, was almost as good as book two as I crossed the halfway mark in the series. I don’t want it to end! Incidentally I have always been a physical book guy but given the travels I decided to get a kindle. Honestly, it’s amazing. I never thought I’d say that but it’s just so convenient and also so easy to get whatever book you want whenever you want it. Probably not going back now! DC
 
And so it begins – the catch-up to Russia’s mastery of drone warfare, no surprise, comes in the form of children being taught how to build, programme and fly drones in school. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Lithuania and Poland are among the countries that have started to make efforts into getting students familiar with drones with the explicit aim of getting the country prepared to counter future drone threats. To be sure, having a strong set of technical skills in programming and electronics is definitely a good thing, especially in a world where the focus on fluffy “soft” skills has overtaken the hard sciences. And to engage in warfare without human lives on the ground in direct conflict should be somewhat of a silver lining. But make no mistake, the military-industrial complex is back in vogue, whether we like it or not, and the time for hard skills in real industry is back. EL