Weekend Reading #306

This is the three-hundredth-and-sixth weekly edition of our newsletter, Weekend Reading, sent out on Saturday 15th March 2025

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What we're thinking.

A choppy week on markets (in the US that is) as the GREAT ROTATION continues. European stocks reached new highs, Chinese stocks ended the week strong and many other international pockets did well. Gold is nearly $3000 an ounce and copper is nearly 5$ a pound! Every money manager from Johannesburg to Jakarta, Frankfurt to Tokyo and all other places is wondering the same thing. For more than a decade everyone has cascaded into US assets and indeed US dollars. When you are down on the year in both stock and currency, you pray for a bounce to rebalance your load. Hence the term GREAT ROTATION which we have ourselves coined for the sheer ring of it. Turkey is flying (sorry) as an almost perfect proxy on European resurgence as it finds itself in a very useful position. Turkey is quite possibly at the epicentre of it all at the moment. An agreement between the US-backed SDF to merge with the Syrian national military and stop fighting means the Americans will be happy with Erdogan. The fear that the Europeans are feeling without their American security blanket against the Russians is only replicated by the perennial fear the Turks have (for good historical reason) of the Russian bear. This means we can expect Turkey to get closer both to the Americans and the Europeans as strategically once again Erdogan finds himself in a good position. It also seems possible that some kind of accommodation will be found with the Israelis for the meantime, until Erdogan’s Syria plan becomes clear. What he is really up to in Syria only he really knows but it is in Turkey and Israel’s interest to work together rather than clash in this arena. For now, anyway that is. Turkey’s military prowess has grown formidably with its world beating drones in particular and the Europeans need weapons and allies. While all the fun seems to have been in European defence, not to be forgotten is Aselsan, Turkey’s publicly listed (and one of many national champions) defence company which has rocketed (sorry again) over 50% in the last few weeks.

What we're meme-ing.

First up is how one simply has to laugh at the sheer absurdity of policy sometimes. After being so fanatical about ESG and saving the world, this headline simply had to be laughed at. Ideology ideoshmology. DC

So much so that we had to make this one up

What we're reading.

Regular readers will know the topic of social media and screens is one I am laser focused on. Hence this article, shared by Jonathan Haidt, in the FT entitled “Have humans passed peak brain power” was as enlightening as it was absurd. It’s obvious why this is happening and the charts in this article are depressing. If adults can’t get off these devices even knowing how bad they are, how on earth are we going to get our kids off them? Most people prefer to keep their heads in the sand because it’s just much easier. This article and its datapoints are a timely and necessary reminder that this is something important and can’t just be scrolled past in search of the next dopamine hit. Giving your young preteen child a smartphone may turn out to be akin to handing them a pack of smokes a day and saying “here go smoke with your friends” because you feel that if you don’t, they will be socially ostracized. Only this hits the brain, not the lungs. DC
 
I came across a short clip from the History channel’s History This Week series that sounded so bizarre that it warranted some extra reading. In question was the topic of Tsar Peter the Great’s “beard tax” – and how that face off against the Russian Orthodox Church at the time (which considered shaving of the beard to be sacrilege) ultimately ushered in Russia’s modernisation. It turns out that the determination of Peter the Great to get rid of beards was extremely comprehensive, as this excerpt archived in JSTOR recounts, relating to the “Beard Coin”, the receipt given to those who had paid their annual beard duties. Coupled with other reforms to modernise Russia, hindsight suggests it was worth the initial upset to the orthodoxy! EL

What we're listening to.

Three excellent podcasts to recommend this week. First up is the GOAT of geopolitics, George Friedman, in an episode of Talking Geopolitics entitled “Why Putin Has Lost The War in Ukraine”.  In it he provides answers to all the questions we all have in our heads about why Trump seemingly favours Russia over Ukraine. His answer “because Trump thinks the Europeans are useless”. Many penny-dropping moments in here.
 
Next up was a superb conversation between Grant Williams and Ben Hunt as Ben chats about the moral void we seem to be entering. His view is clear. There is nothing wrong with the way Trump is reorienting US foreign policy at all. It is amoral not immoral. But this in itself is telling. For a dive into something far deeper than simple policy and geopolitics, this is a must-listen.
 
Finally, someone new to us, who was recommended by more than one person we know almost simultaneously is a chap named Julian Bridgen. While this podcast was fuel for our GREAT ROTATION narrative, we didn’t agree with every single thing he said. This is however without a doubt a critically important listen in the fast changing environment we find ourselves in. DC

What we're watching.

This weekend I will be watching golf - The Players Championship at Sawgrass. The 5th unofficial grand slam, the yellow flags, the green grass and those soft, soothing voices of the commentators that put you into deep relaxation on a Sunday night before the new week starts with a bang. DC