Weekend Reading #312
This is the three-hundredth-and-twelth weekly edition of our newsletter, Weekend Reading, sent out on Saturday 26th April 2025
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What we're thinking.
The single most important thing we tell anyone who asks us is that one quite simply just cannot be prescriptive when it comes to markets. And that is why when analysing markets we place such high emphasis on price action. The market consciousness is far smarter than any of its participants (including us) and knowing how to pay attention to it is what separates the men from the boys. We look at all the same things as everyone else but in our decision-making mixing pot the weighting of price action is far higher than any other ingredient. And that is why this week and what happened in the US markets is important. It reminds us of April 2020. At the time the markets had just begun to go up and NO ONE and we mean NO ONE was bullish. The global economy was collapsing, we were all going to die or at best lock ourselves inside and eat canned food etc, but the markets were going up. We told all and sundry who bothered to listen to us that the markets and the economy are two different beasts. We would do well to remember that this week at a time where US markets have put together a meaningful 3-day-run after selling off earlier in the week. Now we will be the first to admit that of course we can never know what will happen next. We say so all the time. But one simply has to be open to the possibility that US markets have bottomed. If not for a long while, then at least for a short while. The leadership of the market has been seized by some names which led the last run and some which did not. Netflix is an all time high. Palantir is surging. Bitcoin (and Fartcoin!) is powering ahead. Brazil is breaking out; the Yen and Euro are at massive levels for breakout against the dollar. What does this all mean? We can only guess but it’s worth remembering that the dollar can weaken materially, and US markets can still go up a lot. The two are not necessarily intertwined. As one of our favourite X accounts out there, Le Shrub says all the time, don’t be stupid.
What we're watching.
Still on my pet topic of smartphones and kids, I watched a documentary on Channel 4 which wasn’t a great documentary but the principle is interesting. When you see something like that on a state channel you know that is the messaging that the state is intent on pushing. And for once the message is a good one. The documentary is about a school in Essex where kids (and some teachers and parents) take a 21-day detox from smartphones. Completely. The kids are then tested by researchers from York University to see the effects. They are interviewed and followed along the way by a camera crew. The results are all very predictable – improved happiness, interaction between kids (and parents), focus, schoolwork and the rest. But the main point is that after a few days and apart from one kid it seems, it really isn’t difficult to do without the devices. One of the few issues in the UK where it seems policy is headed in the right direction.
Former Singaporean Foreign Minister, George Yeo gave an interview on Geopolitics focused on China and the US in which as usual he gave some great insights. His primary view is that the Chinese are playing for time, comfortable that America’s internal conflicts will result in it not being able to effectively deal with whatever issues China presents to them, including Taiwan. This is very much worth watching. We get way too much “expert analysis” from western sources and in 10 minutes you get his views, which do honestly seem quite rational. DC
What we're listening to.
I must make an observation after listening to two of the best minds in crypto this week – David Huang on Invest Like the Best and Chris Dixon on Conversations with Tyler (Cowan). When I would listen to these types of podcasts many years ago, often with these two exact guests, I would come away filled with inspiration and brimming with ideas. This time, I was left sorely disappointed. Apart from the obvious comments about payments and stablecoins and a bit about the intersection of crypto and AI, there was nothing. And it exemplifies the problem at present with crypto. There are few individual projects that can really get me excited. I’m sure in the private space there are lots of them but in public markets to trade tokens it all seems to be one big boring beta trade. Apart obviously from Bitcoin and the infra blockchains (Eth, Sol et al) themselves it’s all a bit sad. It doesn’t stop us from having lots of fun with the sheer speculatory aspect of it all but in terms of substance there is a definite lack of excitement. Hopefully that changes soon with looming regulation. We think it will but at present it really is just a bit of casino. DC
What we're reading.
For anyone that still doesn’t understand the strategy of the US administration this thread by Tanvi Ratna, who’s views I have enjoyed, is a must read. The way most people dismiss the administration as erratic, scrambling and such adjectives is simply comical. There is a lot going on here at very high levels and this is a great explainer.
Tyler Cowan (referenced above) wrote a piece in the Free Press which he says is a rebuttal to the likes of Jonathan Haidt in defence of screen use. In typical fashion he lays the case for the internet and its wonders. I don’t see why his view and Jonathan Haidt’s are mutually exclusive. The internet is an incredible tool for learning, discovery, communication and self expression (this blog being a prime example!). However, there is zero doubt in my mind that for kids or preteens smartphones and unfettered access to the internet can be disastrous while young brains are still in development. The challenge is to try and stop the bad stuff while still leaving room for all the wonderful elements of the internet. Everyone today is grappling with this quandary and Cowan in his usual unusual way adds to the debate!
This cool piece in Pirate Wires is called Agency is Eating the World by a chap named Gian Segato and its premise is that with the advent of AI tools, almost anyone can do anything. And that it is desire, creativity and dedication that will win rather than years and years of training. What does it all mean for education and for the future of the jobs market? It’s all in here. DC
It’s not often something company-specific in Singapore makes the headlines on Bloomberg, and this time unfortunately it’s like something straight out of a TV drama. This Bloomberg profile of the ongoing succession drama within the Kwek family, owner of City Developments Group, debunks the long-held image of the Kwek family as the epitome of succession planning, bringing to public light the feud between father and son. It’s a fascinating read, and a reminder once again that even the best laid plans, laid within the family, are nothing more than plans – and reality often plays out in very different ways. EL